讲座题目：《Extubation Decisions with Predictive Information for Mechanically Ventilated Patients in the ICU》

主讲嘉宾：谢金贵 教授

会议主持：陈俊霖 教授

讲座时间：2026年9月10日（星期四）上午10点到11点

讲座地点：沙河校区学院4号楼318会议室

讲座摘要：Weaning patients from mechanical ventilators is a crucial decision in intensive care units (ICUs), significantly affecting patient outcomes and the throughput of ICUs. This study aims to improve the current extubation protocols by incorporating predictive information on patient health conditions. We develop a discrete-time, finite-horizon Markov decision process with predictions of future state to support extubation decisions. We characterize the structure of the optimal policy and provide important insights into how predictive information can lead to different decision protocols. We demonstrate that adding predictive information is always beneficial, even if physicians place excessive trust in the predictions, as long as the predictive model is moderately accurate. Using a comprehensive data set from an ICU in a tertiary hospital in Singapore, we evaluate the effectiveness of various policies and demonstrate that incorporating predictive information can reduce ICU length of stay by up to 3.4% and, simultaneously, decrease the extubation failure rate by up to 20.3%, compared with the optimal policy that does not utilize prediction. These benefits are more significant for patients with poor initial conditions upon ICU admission. Both our analytical and numerical findings suggest that predictive information is particularly valuable in identifying patients who could benefit from continued intubation, thereby allowing for personalized and delayed extubation for these patients.

嘉宾简介：

谢金贵教授是慕尼黑工业大学（TUM）的W3教授，并担任Dieter Schwarz基金会商业分析讲席副教授。他的研究聚焦于不确定性下的数据驱动型决策，应用领域涵盖医疗保健运营与服务系统。其研究结合了运营管理、随机建模、强化学习、优化方法及因果推断，旨在优化高风险服务系统的决策过程。谢金贵教授的论文发表于《Management Science》、《Operations Research》、《Manufacturing & Service Operations Management》以及《Production and Operations Management》等期刊。

主办单位：管理科学与工程学院